Approximate Number of Applications in an IPO
Introduction
In most IPO discussions, investors often see subscription figures expressed as multiples (for example, 5× or 20×). However, what many people actually want to understand is the approximate number of applications submitted in an IPO.
This document explains how the approximate number of IPO applications is conceptually inferred from publicly available subscription data, and why this number is always an estimate.
Why Exact Application Count Is Not Public
Stock exchanges such as NSE and BSE do not publish the exact number of unique IPO applicants in real time.
This is because IPO bid data is reported in terms of shares or lots applied for, not the number of individual PAN-based applications.
What Data Is Publicly Available
During an IPO, exchanges publish the following information:
- Total shares offered in each investor category
- Total shares bid for in each category
- Subscription multiple (shares bid ÷ shares offered)
- Lot size for the IPO
Conceptual Method to Approximate Number of Applications
To estimate the number of applications, analysts often start with the assumption that most applicants apply for the minimum allowed quantity (especially in the retail category).
This approach provides a rough lower-bound estimate rather than an exact count.
Retail Category Example
Assume the following retail IPO details:
- Retail shares offered: 1,00,000
- Lot size: 10 shares
- Retail subscription: 20×
Total retail shares bid ≈ 20 × 1,00,000 = 20,00,000 shares
If most applicants applied for one lot (10 shares), the approximate number of applications would be:
20,00,000 ÷ 10 ≈ 2,00,000 applications
Why This Is Only an Approximation
- Some applicants apply for multiple lots
- HNI and NII categories involve widely varying bid sizes
- Cut-off price rejections reduce the final valid application count
- Duplicate or invalid PAN-based bids are removed after issue close
Category Differences in Application Estimation
Approximation works best for the Retail Individual Investor (RII) category, where minimum-bid behavior is common.
For NII/HNI and QIB categories, application sizes vary significantly, making application count estimation far less reliable.
Use in Allotment Probability Analysis
Approximate application counts are often used in probability estimation tools to understand allotment pressure and relative demand.
Such estimates should always be interpreted as directional indicators, not precise statistics.
Important Notice
The approximate number of IPO applications discussed here is derived from assumptions and simplified models. Actual application counts and allotment outcomes are determined solely by the IPO registrar in accordance with SEBI regulations.